The stage is set for an intriguing clash between United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Nepal, two teams known for their evolving cricket structures and analytical depth. As both sides look to strengthen their form ahead of upcoming tournaments, this cricket analysis dives deep into squad balance, pitch conditions, player probabilities, and win prediction metrics that matter to every data-driven cricket analyst.
1. Squads for the Match
United Arab Emirates (UAE):
Muhammad Waseem (c), Alishan Sharafu, Aryansh Sharma (wk), Basil Hameed, Dhruv Parashar, Jonathan Figy, Haider Ali, Harshit Kaushik, Junaid Siddique, Muhammad Farooq, Muhammad Irfan, Rahul Chopra (wk), Rohid Khan, Simranjeet Singh, Zahid Ali.
Nepal:
Rohit Paudel (c), Dipendra Singh Airee, Mohammad Aadil Alam, Aarif Sheikh, Aasif Sheikh (wk), Kushal Bhurtel, Gulshan Jha, Sundeep Jora, Karan KC, Kushal Malla, Sandeep Lamichhane, Lokesh Bam, Lalit Rajbanshi, Sompal Kami, Nandan Yadav.
2. Ground Analysis & Pitch Report
| Metric | Data | Observation |
| Average Winning Score | 165-175 | Moderate batting surface |
| Win % Batting Second | 62% | Chasing advantage |
| Average Boundaries | 32 | Encourages stroke play |
| Bowling Average of Bowling Types (Pace/Spin) | 24.03/23.09 | Spinners enjoy more success |
Pitch Report:
Expect early seam movement, but a flatter surface later. The chasing side holds a tactical edge, especially under lights.
Wicket Probability Analysis:
It is most likely that each team will lose between 7 to 8 wickets in their innings, with a 66.67% probability.
3. Top Batsmen to Watch
| Player | Chance of Scoring 20 or more Runs | Strength |
| Gulshan Jha (NEP) | 60% | Dynamic all-rounder who adds explosiveness down the order |
| Muhammad Waseem (UAE) | 52% | Explosive power-hitter with high boundary frequency |
| Dipendra Singh Airee (NEP) | 52% | A reputed death overs striker and handy spin bowler |
4. Top Bowlers to Watch
| Player | Chance of taking 2 or more wickets | Bowling Style |
| Sandeep Lamichhane (NEP) | 68% | Leg-spinner, lethal in middle overs |
| Haider Ali (UAE) | 56% | Left arm Orthodox bowler, early powerplay wicket-taker |
| Aadil Ansari (UAE) | 50% | All-rounder who bowls seam and can hit big |
5. Ground Prediction and Performance Pattern
The venue’s data indicates that teams that score around the 170 runs mark, the threshold for a competitive total, have a high likelihood of winning. Moreover, matches at this venue often hinge on death-overs execution; bowlers with higher yorker accuracy tend to reduce final overs’ run leaks by 18% on average.
Hence, Nepal’s bowling discipline in overs 17–20, driven by Karan KC and Lamichhane, could become a defining factor. For live score models, overs 10–14 typically exhibit the most significant change in win probabilities.
6. Win Prediction Model
| Scenario | Nepal Win Probability | UAE Win Probability |
| UAE bats first | 59% | 41% |
| Nepal bats first | 57% | 43% |
In real-time cricket analytics, the first six overs will define momentum. Nepal’s chase record at venues with similar conditions supports their slight advantage, but small deviations in pitch behaviour could still make this contest unpredictable a hallmark of modern AI-driven cricket prediction.
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